Jon Rahm warns 18-handicappers would struggle at Royal Birkdale Open

Jon Rahm has issued a stark warning about the challenge facing 18-handicap golfers at this week’s Open Championship at Royal Birkdale.

What did Jon Rahm say?

Rahm told Callaway Golf Europe that most 18-handicappers wouldn’t even make it past the front nine at Royal Birkdale. Even with a slightly more forgiving opening nine, he believes the wind and rough would force many to quit before completing 18 holes.

“Most of them would leave after nine,” Rahm said. “Honestly, there’s no… the front nine you may survive, the rough isn’t as thick as it’s been in the past. You could do OK. I just think a lot of them wouldn’t finish.”

Why is the Open so tough at Royal Birkdale?

Royal Birkdale’s par-70 layout demands precision off the tee and into greens baked hard by coastal winds. Rahm highlighted holes 13 and 18-both playing into brutal gusts-as especially punishing. Pros often hit driver-two iron or driver-four iron there; for amateurs, even finding the fairway can feel like a victory.

The average winning score at Royal Birkdale sits around nine-under (276). Jordan Spieth won in 2017 at 12-under, underscoring how elite players thrive where mere mortals wilt.

What would an 18-handicapper shoot?

Rahm didn’t mince words. He pegged a realistic score for an 18-handicapper-assuming they somehow survived all 18 holes-at “nothing shy of 120.” He added, “We’re going north of that. It’s a very large number.”

How does this affect Jon Rahm’s Open chances?

Rahm, a 2026 Open favorite, knows Royal Birkdale’s sting firsthand. His best finish at the Major came at Royal Liverpool in 2023 (T2). His lone appearance at Birkdale in 2017 ended in a T44.

That history makes his blunt take on amateur struggles all the more pointed. If even scratch players grind to stay in contention, an 18-handicap golfer staring down 50-mph winds on 13 and 18 faces a different kind of Open-one where survival is the first victory.