Davante Adams Projected to Drop TDs in 2026, Analyst Says

Davante Adams is expected to record fewer touchdown receptions in the 2026 NFL season, ESPN analyst Mike Clay reported on July 8, 2026, after the wideout led the league with 14 TD catches in 2025. The projection puts the Rams’ top red-zone target among 12 players likely to see a dip in scoring.

Why did the analyst flag Adams?

Clay’s model looks back at every season from 2012 through 2024 where a player hit double-digit touchdowns. In 81 % of those 263 cases, the athlete scored fewer TDs the following year, dropping an average of 4.8 scores. When a player reaches the 14-touchdown threshold, the decline steepens: 95.3 % of the 64 instances saw a dip of about eight touchdowns. Adams’ 14 TDs in 2025 land him squarely in that high-risk group.

How does Rams’ roster affect Adams’ chances?

Los Angeles added rookie Terrance Ferguson, who logged two red-zone scores in the final two games of 2025 and was on the field for the Rams’ last NFC Championship red-zone play. Ferguson’s emergence could siphon targets away from Adams, who has been the Rams’ No. 1 option inside the 20-yard line. Quarterback Matthew Stafford already looked his way on a last-second throw in that championship game, hinting at a shared workload.

What does history say about similar drops?

Clay cited recent examples: Ja’Marr Chase fell from 17 TDs in 2024 to eight in 2025, and Jalen Hurts dropped from 14 to eight. Even prolific rushers like Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley saw double-digit declines after hitting 14-plus scores. The only outliers were Todd Gurley, Marshawn Lynch and Kyren Williams, all of whom either changed roles or benefited from unique offensive schemes.

Can Adams defy the odds?

The analysis notes that the three players who improved after a 14-TD season were all running backs, not wide receivers. Adams remains the Rams’ primary red-zone weapon, and his chemistry with Stafford could keep him in the mix. However, the statistical trend and the rise of Ferguson suggest a realistic chance that his touchdown total will dip, perhaps mirroring the league-wide pattern Clay outlined.

What should fantasy owners consider?

Owners drafting for 2026 should treat Adams as a high-floor, moderate-ceiling option. Expect solid yardage and receptions, but temper expectations for a 14-TD haul. Pairing him with a reliable tight end like Colby Parkinson, who also faces a projected decline, may balance risk. Monitoring preseason target distribution will be key to gauging Adams’ red-zone role before the regular season kicks off.